Football’s Managerial Merry-go-round

For decades, football managers were pillars of their clubs, shaping identity, culture, and playing style over long periods. Legendary figures like Sir Alex Ferguson at Manchester United, Arsène Wenger at Arsenal, and Brian Clough at Nottingham Forest exemplified a golden age of managerial stability.

Their tenures often lasted a decade or more, allowing them to implement long-term visions, develop youth systems, and embed a distinct philosophy within their teams. Fans, players, and boards alike understood that success was a gradual process, and patience was a virtue.

Today, that stability is largely gone. In top European leagues, the average managerial tenure is around 18 months or less. Clubs operate in a globalized, hyper-commercialized environment where financial stakes are enormous and expectations are immediate.

Television rights, sponsorship deals, and merchandising revenues create pressures that were unimaginable in the past. Rare exceptions like Pep Guardiola at Manchester City or Diego Simeone at Atlético Madrid prove that long-term survival is possible, but only under extraordinary circumstances.

For most clubs, managerial longevity has become a luxury, eroded by financial necessity, relentless media scrutiny, and structural changes such as the rise of the Sporting Director. The modern manager is no longer a long-term institution but a short-term project in a fast-moving business.

One of the main reasons managerial longevity has declined is financial pressure. Relegation remains the single biggest threat to a club’s survival. Dropping out of the top league can cost billions in media rights and sponsorships, creating an existential crisis that boards cannot afford to risk. The result is immediate action at the first signs of poor results. Clubs like Leicester City have demonstrated this pattern in recent years, making quick managerial changes to protect revenue streams.

European competition adds another layer. Failure to qualify for the Champions League or Europa League is often treated as catastrophic, prompting clubs to replace managers to “reset” trajectories, regardless of whether long-term projects were still viable. Paradoxically, paying a manager’s severance package is usually cheaper than enduring the potential financial loss of missing out on high-profile competitions.

Ownership models also exacerbate the problem. Foreign investors, multi-club ownership groups, and American-style investment funds view clubs as assets requiring rapid returns. Patience is a costly indulgence, and boards often prioritize short-term stability over long-term vision. Managers are now judged less on their ability to build institutions and more on their capacity to deliver immediate results in a high-stakes commercial environment.

Another major factor in the decline of managerial longevity is the shift in club structures. The rise of the Sporting Director model has fundamentally altered the manager’s role. In the past, managers like Ferguson or Wenger had near-total control over transfers, training, and club strategy. Today, most managers operate as “Head Coaches,” responsible primarily for training sessions and matchday decisions, while Sporting Directors handle recruitment, long-term planning, and overall squad composition.

This division creates a conflict of responsibility. Managers must succeed with players they did not personally select, often regardless of tactical fit. If results falter, the blame is easier to assign to the coach than to the Director. Meanwhile, managers arrive with large, specialized backroom teams, analysts, nutritionists, set-piece coaches, and more.

Even replacing a manager often means paying for an entirely new staff, yet clubs continue to make these changes rapidly, unlike the older model of replacing a single man after decades of service.

Player power further undermines managerial authority. Highly paid, independent stars backed by influential agents can sway dressing room dynamics. A breakdown in these relationships can force boards to side with players over the manager, accelerating managerial exits.

While some leagues, like Germany and Spain, retain elements of traditional manager authority, the trend toward diluted managerial power is now global, leaving managers vulnerable and tenure short-lived.

Modern managers also now operate under relentless media pressure. Social media platforms, fan forums, and 24/7 sports networks dissect every tactical decision in real time, often influencing boardroom decisions. Negative attention online, whether through trending hashtags, fan polls, or viral criticism, increases scrutiny and shortens the patience of owners and directors.

Tactical style also plays a role. Managers frequently note a “three-year rule”: after about three seasons, players may become too familiar with a single approach, leading to complacency or diminished performance.

Boards often replace managers to introduce novelty, seeking the so-called “new manager bounce” to reinvigorate teams, even if the departing coach was competent. In this environment, change itself becomes a commodity, valued for its perceived ability to deliver results as much as any tactical adjustment.

The combination of constant media evaluation and the need for fresh approaches ensures that even capable managers rarely enjoy the extended tenures of previous generations. Longevity is sacrificed to keep up with the pace of modern football, where both attention and results must be immediate.

While managerial longevity has largely disappeared, a few exceptional figures demonstrate that it is still possible under unique circumstances.

Pep Guardiola at Manchester City survives because he built a tactical and structural foundation from the ground up. His unprecedented success is reinforced by financial resources that are largely untouchable under UEFA Financial Fair Play rules, allowing him to continually reinvent his squad and tactical approach. Guardiola’s tenure combines innovation, elite recruitment, and the backing of patient owners, creating conditions rare in modern football.

Diego Simeone at Atlético Madrid represents a different type of exception. His longevity is rooted in emotional and cultural factors: his legendary status as a former player and the identity he forged for the club make him nearly irreplaceable. Simeone embodies the club’s philosophy and is the only constant figure in an era otherwise defined by short-term managerial turnover. Both cases demonstrate that survival in the modern era requires extraordinary alignment between managerial skill, club resources, and institutional loyalty, highlighting just how rare true long-term tenures have become.

The decline of managerial longevity is a logical consequence of football’s global commercialization and hyper-competitive nature. Clubs operate in an environment where short-term results are the primary measure of success, and managers are judged on immediate performance rather than long-term vision. Patience has become a luxury few boards are willing to afford.

This shift comes at a cost. The sport loses opportunities for deep, philosophical change, sustained youth development, and the romance of clubs built in the image of a single manager. In modern football, the manager’s role is project-based: designed to deliver rapid results before being decommissioned. The career of a manager is no longer about shaping a club over decades but about navigating a high-pressure, financially-driven environment where short-term fixes dominate. Longevity, once a defining characteristic of football management, has become an exception rather than the rule.